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The shell game, three shells and a pea is a confidence trick used to perpetrate fraud.

The game requires three shells and a small, soft round ball, about the size of a pea. The shell man perpetrating the swindle begins the game by placing the pea under one of the shells, then quickly shuffles the shells around.

Once done shuffling, the operator takes bets from his audience on the location of the pea. The audience is told if a player bets and guesses correctly, the player will double his money; otherwise he loses his money. However, in the hands of a skilled operator, it is not possible for the game to be won. The player must turn over any two shells saying the pea is under neither of these. Since the pea is usually palmed, it is not under any of the shells and the victim has no choice but to pay up.

The operator's trick is sleight of hand. A skilled operator can remove a pea from under any shell (or shells) and place it (or not) under any shell (or shells) undetected by the victim.

When the shell man has finished moving the shells around, he asks the victim if they wish to bet on the play. If a victim agrees, they have to place their money down before they can point to a shell. Using sleight of hand, the pea is revealed to be under a different shell than chosen.

In its first year, Janet Napolitano's ICE deported 387,790 immigrants — far more than during George W. Bush's last year in office. If the trend line Bush’s enforcement structure set in motion continues, Napolitano is on pace to deport around half a million people a year by 2013.

Obama Plays Shell Game with Hispanic Deportations

WASHINGTON & SANTA FE, NM (By Jon Garrido, The Jon Garrido Network) March 31, 2011 ― If there was any doubt over the growing clout of Hispanic voters, last week the data released by the U.S. Census put it to rest: 50,500,000 Hispanics were counted by the 2010 Census and in the future, Hispanics will be the majority population in America, even if today, the border is completely sealed.

 

Hispanics accounted for more than half of the U.S. population increase over the last decade and now make up the largest minority group in America accounting for more than 16 percent of the population.

 

As the 2012 election nears, it appears President Obama sees the writing on the wall and is taking steps to begin a new start wooing Hispanic voters after a disastrous Immigration Reform strategy failed on December 18, 2010, with the defeat of the DREAM Act showing increased deportation enforcement of Hispanics is a flawed approach.

 

At a town hall on Monday on education at Bell Multicultural High School in Washington D.C., Mr. Obama reaffirmed his commitment to a piece of legislation critically important to many young Hispanics ― the DREAM Act, which would give certain undocumented youth a pathway to citizenship.

 

The high Hispanic dropout rate and the scanty proportion of those young people who go on to college were issues discussed but the deportation of students was the primary issue at the town hall meeting President Obama held Monday.

The videotaped question by a student holding a deportation letter opened the debate that took up the main part of the forum organized by the Univision television network and which was attended by some 600 parents, students and teachers.

Karen Maldonado an undocumented student holding up a deportation letter asked, "My question for the president is why are we still receiving deportation letters like this one?"

Univision news anchor Jorge Ramos, who was moderating the event, asked Obama if he could sign an executive order preventing the deportations.

Obama Plays Shell Game on Hispanics

Obama said, "With respect to the notion I can suspend deportations through executive order, that's just not the case. There are enough laws on the books by Congress that are very clear in terms of how we have to enforce our immigration system that for me to simply through executive order ignore those congressional mandates would not conform with my appropriate role as president."

Changes in the number of deportations undertaken by President Bush and now Obama documents Obama has a tremendous amount of latitude prioritizing deportation levels. 

In an effort to obtain Immigration Reform, President Obama followed a non cerebral strategy of increased enforcement to win bipartisan congressional support for Immigration Reform but the Obama Immigration Reform strategy failed on December 18, 2010, with the defeat of the DREAM Act showing increased deportation enforcement of Hispanics is a flawed approach leaving countless Hispanic families in anguish and pain when a family member is abruptly deported.

Hispanic leaders with disbelief voice the obvious, "The Obama deportation strategy borne no fruits whatsoever."

The Obama administration unilaterally led the march on enforcement, yet, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, the head of deportations for Obama, has repeatedly denied the Obama administration had increased deportations in order to bring Republicans to the bargaining table to achieve Immigration Reform.

Obama has chosen to significantly increase the number of undocumented deportations exceeding the deportations of former Republican President Bush.

 

If Obama has the authority to exceed President Bush's number of deportations, Obama  has the authority to set the level of deportations at the same level used by President Bush.

 

President Obama also has authority to de-prioritize the level of deportations decreasing deportations below levels obtain by President Bush.

 

To correct what Obama said he has no discretion in setting the number of deportations, there is no federal law mandating the magnitude and priority of deportations.

 

When Obama said, "With respect to the notion I can not suspend deportations through executive order....," Obama is playing a shell game with America's Hispanics to obtain voter support.

 

Hispanic Democrats are faced with a paradox: Support for Obama is identical to supporting a Republican who pursues enforcement deporting Hispanics a major priority.

 

Obama's broken promises

 

To obtain Hispanic support in the 2008 campaign, Obama promised Hispanics Immigration Reform would be a priority in the first year of his office — a broken promise.

 

Obama then promised Hispanics he would make Immigration Reform a priority in the second year of his office and again — a broken promise.

 

His 2012 campaign message will be more of the same as used in 2008 to again promise to make Immigration Reform a priority but Obama has shown us his promise will be a broken promise. Obama will try to use us as he did in 2008.

 

The Obama Immigration Reform strategy and why it failed

 

Electing a Democrat to the White House in 2008 was all about change.

 

For Hispanics, change was the means to obtain Immigration Reform to bring an end to the deportation of undocumented Hispanics. In 2008, Bush set a record deporting 368,401 undocumented. This may be a hard number to put your arms around but put another way: 1,009 persons a day were deported by Bush.

 

Hispanics voted for change in 2008 never thinking Obama would ratchet up Bush's numbers — but we were wrong.

 

With "change" in 2010, President Obama deported 387,790 undocumented Hispanic immigrants — a 5 percent jump over the Bush administration’s record in 2008.

 

Obama and Napolitano have become even worse tyrants than the infamous Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Arizona.

 

All to enhance "Law Enforcement" to cater to the Republican mantra of "Security First," euphuism for blatant racism directed toward Hispanics.

 

To achieve "Security First," Obama uses Secretary of Homeland Secretary Janet Napolitano who has become the key player driving Immigration Reform via "Securing the Border," euphemism for being tough using law enforcement.

 

Napolitano under Obama's mandate has expanded 297(g) partnerships with local police that allow them to enforce federal immigration laws. While abandoning the attention getting raids on businesses employing undocumented of the Bush era, it has stepped up electronic investigations of employee records, which has led to lower-profile but equally disruptive enforcement efforts.

The Obama/Napolitano's tough-love approach to immigration aims both to foster Republican support for Immigration Reform and to avoid claims Obama is soft on crime and security issues, but for some advocates of reform, Obama/Napolitano's right turn has gone so far it is becoming a liability in the long fight to pass comprehensive Immigration Reform.


“The political strategy Obama/Napolitano is pursuing is a bankrupt one,” said Deepak Bhargava, executive director of the Center for Community Change, "Tough enforcement was supposed to give the president the 'bona fides' to push through reform. Instead, it has only wet the appetite of conservatives for more and more enforcement.” 

 Frank Sharry, head of America’s Voices, said, "Reform opponents will never be satisfied. Republicans have been moving the goal post on this border-security-first issue for a decade. It’s never enough and it never will be enough. It’s a fool’s errand.”

Worse still, immigrant advocates charge, in their zeal to demonstrate toughness, Janet Napolitano's Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and its enforcement partners have dragged many law-abiding undocumented immigrants and legitimate businesses into the system, shattering Obama’s promises of more humane treatment.

Seeking to reverse a steep drop in deportations, Napolitano has set controversial new quotas for agents. At the same time, officials have stepped back from an Obama/Napolitano commitment to focus enforcement efforts primarily on undocumented immigrants who are dangerous or have violent criminal backgrounds. Now, any one with a brown face is suspect!

The moves, outlined in internal documents and a recent e-mail by Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and ICE chief John T. Morton, a senior U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement official, to field directors nationwide, differ from pledges by Obama to focus enforcement on the most dangerous undocumented immigrants.

The shift is troubling to labor strategists and immigrant advocates, who for years have seen accepting tougher enforcement as a concession that would allow them to attain their goal of bringing undocumented workers and their families out of the shadows.

"Why would a conservative Republican vote for something if they are already getting what they want?" said Ali Noorani, a lead organizer of national demonstrations to hold President Obama to his 2008 campaign promise to take action.

Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.) and other immigrant-rights advocates also questioned how President Obama and Janet Napolitano could preside over the greatest number of deportations in any two-year period in the nation's history. Obama's answer, always the same, "Deporting almost 800,000 undocumented immigrants might antagonize some Democrats and Hispanic voters but stepped-up enforcement is the only way to buy credibility with Republicans and generate bipartisan support for an overhaul of the nation's immigration laws."

On December 18, 2010, the Obama/Napolitano Immigration strategy was in ruins after Senate Democrats could only muster 55 votes in support of the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act, a measure that would have created a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who were brought to this country as children. Under Senate rules, Democrats needed 60 votes to overcome Republican opposition to the bill.

 

Everyone believes immigration overhaul is not possible in the next two years, given the views of many members of the incoming Republican majority in the House.

Never-the-less, Obama/Napolitano continue to ramp up deportations. Again immigrant-rights supporters are second-guessing the president's efforts to woo Republicans but there is no empathy from Obama.

"It is a strategy which has borne no fruit whatsoever," Gutierrez said, "This administration has unilaterally led the march on enforcement, yet the other side has not given one morsel of compromise."

Obama/Napolitano have pursued tough enforcement — producing a record number of about 390,000 deportations last year — with an effort to pass the overhaul, which would open a path to legal status for an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants. Now, with less hope for any legalization measures since Republicans have now take over the House, the administration is left with just the stick.

The 2012 Presidential Election

After the DREAM Act was killed, President Obama lamented the defeat as "An incredibly disappointing vote... It is disappointing common sense did not prevail today... Moving forward, my administration will continue to do everything we can to fix our nation's broken immigration system so we can provide lasting and dedicated resources for our border security."

To Hispanic voters, President Obama's tepid words sounded like so much "blah blah blah." All pretty words, no heartfelt action, no genuine commitment, certainly no empathy.

President Obama must do more than provide cheap and easy talk to continue to draw Hispanic voter support.

Obama must be seen walking the walk of humanitarian Immigration Reform, not border security, to be re-elected in 2012.

 

Obama will have to persuade Hispanics ― who turned out for him in record numbers in key states in 2008 ― to do so again, despite the lack of progress on Immigration Reform.

 

As for Immigration Reform, in 2008, when Obama was elected president, Democrats controlled both Houses of Congress. if Obama could not win Immigration Reform when Democrats were the majorities in both houses of congress, the probability of Immigration Reform approval in 2013 will need much more than Obama.

 

Polls, not to mention election results, indicate Democrats have little to worry about when it comes to voter loyalty among Hispanics. In the 2010 midterms, strong support from the Hispanic community helped bolster Democrats in tough races, including California Sen. Barbara Boxer, Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and Washington Sen. Patty Murray.

 

Yet, some contend Hispanics' allegiance to the Democratic party stems more from an aversion to anti-immigration elements of the Republican party.

 

"The turnout in 2010 was an anti-Republican turnout and a pro-Hispanic turnout," Matt Barreto, pollster and associate professor of political science at the University of Washington, told Hotsheet. Hispanic support in 2012, he said, "is not going to be a given unless Democrats really engage that community." Alternatively, he said, "you might just have low turnout."

 

Meanwhile,  Barreto pointed out, "The only thing he's done is increase the number of deportations and raids." As Homeland Security Chief Janet Napolitano told Congress earlier this month, the Obama administration has made record numbers of deportations of individuals in the U.S. illegally ― both overall and in terms of criminal aliens.

 

Obama is simply not a good fit with Hispanics. Obama lacks empathy for Hispanics and has little to show for winning comprehensive Immigration Reform and without enthusiastic Hispanic voters voting for him in 2012, Obama will not have a second term in office.

 

Obama can not Win in 2012 without the Hispanic Vote and I am Not Voting for Obama Unless....the six items below are achieved before the 2012 elections. Obama has no creditability with campaign promises so each of the items below must be delivered before the 2012 election.

1. Today, Obama must cut back the number of deportations to the number deported under President Bush and use existing presidential powers to stop deportations of the estimated 65,000 undocumented students who were brought to the United States as children, and who graduate from high school every year, and want to enter college or the armed forces. Second, Obama must use his executive powers to delay deportation of the parents of the estimated four million U.S.-born children who have at least one parent who does not have legal status.

2. End Napolitano's Secure Communities program that can deport any immigrant arrested by any law enforcement agency such as Sheriff Joe Arpaio for having a broken tail light. In Phoenix, Arpaio continues his sweeps arresting the undocumented working with ICE to deport all that are arrested. What Arpaio is doing in Phoenix is happening throughout the USA.

3. Fire Janet Napolitano and John Norton.

4. Support the candidacy of Hispanic Democrats running for state and congressional offices before and during the primary by providing fund raising, campaign management and endorsements. It is national policy not to support any candidate in a primary where two or more are competing but if one non-Hispanic candidate was an established office holder, the probability of electing an Hispanic is lessen; therefore, the National Democratic Party to elect Hispanics to office must make exceptions. There is no better illustration of this than Senator Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico who in 29 years he served as the U.S. Senator from New Mexico never gave a speech advocating Immigration Reform. There may be non-Hispanics who vote for Immigration Reform but just voting for Immigration Reform will not get the job done. Strong advocacy is required and only Hispanic members of Congress will advocate Immigration Reform — not non-Hispanics. Electing a non-Hispanic Senator in New Mexico would be the same as electing another Jeff Bingaman. Does New Mexico want another 29 years of non representation? Hispanics are now the majority in New Mexico and now more than never, New Mexico needs an Hispanic U.S. Senator that will be the driving force to achieve Immigration Reform. Martin Heinrich is a Jeff Bingaman clone. A nice guy but clearly not the answer to represent all the residents of New Mexico.

5. Assure every committee of the National Democratic Convention be composed of the same percentage of members equal to the 2010 Census count on race. The 2010 Census counted 50.5 million Hispanics in the United States making up 16.3% of the total population. Each National Democratic Convention committee must have at a minimum 16.3% Hispanic representation. At the 2008 National Democratic Convention, only a handful of Hispanics were represented. Some committees had no Hispanic representation which is shameful! Some committees appeared to have been dominated by blacks. Why? Now because of the census data certifying the surge of the Hispanic community is now the biggest minority group in the USA, the black community wants to partner with the Hispanic community. Let them show sincerity by removing their dominance of the National Democratic Convention.

The 2010 census counted 50.5 million Hispanics and 38.9 million blacks — compared with 35.3 million Hispanics and 34.7 million blacks in 2000. But those figures have not translated into Hispanic clout in Congress, where — not including delegates or members of Portuguese ancestry — they have 24 House members (17 Democrats and seven Republicans), compared with 42 black representatives (40 Democrats and two Republicans).

6. For 2012, partner with a Mexican American Hispanic for Vice President who is a strong advocate for Immigration Reform. The entire United States must learn, Cuban and Puerto Ricans could care less about Immigration Reform. Immigration Reform is a Mexican, Central and South American priority.

Today, as in 2008, Obama is promising to pursue Immigration Reform but I will not support Barack Obama's re-election unless the above six items are achieved before the 2012 elections.

Jon Garrido, CEO and Owner

The Jon Garrido Network

Santa Fe, New Mexico

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Some content from wire services and previous Jon Garrido articles and editorials.
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